Trend analysis of temperature and precipitation in central Tanzania using regression and non-parametric approaches

Climate change is altering global temperature and precipitation patterns, endangering food security, water resources, and socio-economic stability worldwide (Nicholson, 2017;Tierney et al., 2015).These changes drive more frequent and severe extreme weather events, such as erratic rainfall and prolonged droughts, which undermine agriculture and livelihoods, particularly in regions with limited adaptive capacity (Funk et al., 2015;Ongoma et al., 2018).Africa is especially vulnerable due to its reliance on rain-fed farming and inadequate infrastructure, facing heightened risks due to their semi-arid climate, rising temperatures, and unpredictable rainfall (Gebrechorkos et al., 2019;Rowhani et al., 2011).Agriculture, water, and food security are highly vulnerable to shifts in rainfall and temperature.Increasing droughts and extreme rains disrupt livelihoods, highlighting the need for long-term climate studies to guide adaptation.Dependence on rain-fed farming, socioeconomic constraints, and limited research make this zone critical for resilience strategies.In Tanzania, where agriculture employs over 70% of the population, declining rainfall and intensifying extremes exacerbate food insecurity, particularly in these semi-arid regions (Craparo et al., 2015;Rowhani et al., 2011).Various studies have been reported on trend analysis of rainfall and temperature across the globe using parametric and nonparametric approaches including innovative trend analysis (Khan et al., 2024;Yewale and Jadhav, 2025;Abdulfattah et al., 2025).While climate research in East Africa has grown, central Tanzania remains underexplored, particularly in assessing long-term climate trends critical for agriculture and water management (Nicholson, 2017;Yang et al., 2014).By focusing on these regions, this study addresses this gap, offering robust insights into climate trends.The findings aim to inform agricultural policy, enhance water resource management, and strengthen disaster risk reduction, fostering resilience in one of Tanzania's most climate-sensitive regions (