Advanced Waste Management Strategic Analysis: Human Lunar Return to Sustained Lunar Evolution

Strategic planning and architecture formulation are instrumental to achieving NASA’s Moon to Mars objectives. For a sustained lunar presence, stepwise capability maturation plans are required to meet defined characteristics, needs, and functions, from Human Lunar Return (HLR) to Sustained Lunar Evolution (SLE). The technical area of waste management is no exception to this. A preliminary study was performed to predict advanced waste management capability infusion points throughout the lunar M2M segments. Waste generation rates within various elements for reference missions of each lunar segment were estimated in relation to mass and volume storage capacities. Using historical data and subject matter experts, a waste resource assessment was performed to identify materials that are of high utility that may warrant reutilization in future missions. With waste generation and resource-potential understood, the infusion of waste processing and recycling methods was assessed by identifying break-even points for state-of-the-art technologies with respect to waste reduction and resource recovery. Trash-to-Gas, Trash Compaction and/or Processing, and In-Space Manufacturing of recycled materials were assessed as example cases for advanced waste management capability infusion more generally. The results of this study indicate a growth in waste loading from the early-stage HLR segment, with a substantial increase starting in the mid-stage Foundational Exploration (FE) segment through the late-stage SLE missions which will challenge traditional waste storage concepts on all key elements. Furthermore, waste resources become apparent within mid- to late-stage missions, in the realm of hundreds to thousands of kilograms per resource. Accordingly, assessed technologies were found to break even in the FE and/or SLE segments, when analyzing with respect to either resource recovery or waste reduction. These findings suggest that an incrementally scaled advanced waste management capability will likely be required to satisfy NASA’s objectives for a sustained lunar presence while providing appropriate stewardship of our closest celestial body.