Assessing the potential of new-typed infrastructure in decarbonizing the industrial sector: A spatial quantile Durbin model

In the context of achieving carbon neutrality, new-typed infrastructure plays a crucial role in promoting decarbonization in the industrial sector. Most existing literature employs mean models to investigate industrial emission reduction, often overlooking the significant information conveyed by extreme values. In contrast to related studies, this article develops a spatial quantile Durbin model. This model not only elucidates the inherent spatial effects of economic phenomena but also offers a comprehensive impact of influencing factors on the conditional distribution of industrial CO₂ emissions. The research findings suggest that new-typed infrastructure significantly contributes to the reduction of industrial carbon intensity across various provinces. However, its influence on the industrial carbon intensity of adjacent provinces remains relatively limited. From the perspective of resource endowment, the impact of new-typed infrastructure on reducing carbon intensity is more significant in non-resource-rich provinces compared to that in resource-rich provinces. From the perspective of region, the effectiveness of new-typed infrastructure in alleviating industrial carbon intensity is particularly pronounced in the eastern and western regions; conversely, its capacity for carbon reduction appears to be limited in the central region. Mechanism analysis suggests that industrial upgrading has not significantly reduced carbon intensity, and its impact on carbon reduction in neighboring provinces remains limited. In contrast, renewable energy and foreign direct investment play a crucial role in decreasing industrial carbon intensity. Furthermore, the carbon reduction effects of renewable energy exhibit significant spatial spillovers, whereas the spatial impact of foreign direct investment is not substantial. The research findings provide empirical evidence and policy recommendations aimed at enhancing the development of new-typed infrastructure and facilitating reductions in industrial carbon emissions.