Forecasting the prospects of industrial development in regions under the conditions of sanctions limiting imports

The subject of the research is economic relations concerning the intensification of industrial economic growth in the region based on an empirical assessment of import vulnerability and the stimulation of import substitution processes in priority areas of industrial production. The object of the study consists of the entities of the Russian Volga Federal District. The authors examine in detail issues related to developing methodological approaches for identifying critically significant commodities imported from abroad into the regions of Russia and constructing models that determine the extent of their influence on regional industrial development processes under sanctions pressure. Particular attention is paid to constructing scenarios for limiting the supply of critically significant goods from abroad in the context of sanctions and developing prospects for economic growth in the regions of the Volga Federal District based on this analysis. The methodological basis consists of tools for statistical data analysis, grouping, and systematization, including the use of econometric research methods and panel data analysis. The main results of the study are the identification of critically significant commodity nomenclatures of foreign economic activity (FEA) for the industries of the Volga Federal District, which pose the primary threats to sustainable economic development. The established registry of critical imports for the entities of the Volga Federal District by FEA allowed, relying on data scenario analysis methods and econometric modeling, to determine possible trajectories for industrial development in these entities. Based on the obtained model patterns of the influence of identified critical imports on the volumes of industrial development in the regions of the Volga Federal District, prognostic estimates of the economic growth dynamics of the studied regional group were achieved. The novelty of the research lies in the developed methodological tools that substantiate the hypothesis put forward in the study that "considering spatial (unmeasurable, individual differences) effects contributes to increasing the predictive efficiency of econometric models of regional economic development." The proposed tools not only define the features and directions of forecasting methods for the development of mesoeconomic systems but also establish a foundation for the development of regional economic theory as a whole.