Habitation Life Support Breakeven Analysis for Lunar-derived Oxygen and Water

Lunar-derived oxygen and water have been postulated as commodities that could enable a cislunar-based economy. Water, electrolyzed hydrogen, and oxygen obtained from lunar resources could refuel landers, replenish cislunar fuel depots for deep space exploration, and support crew survival. While numerous analyses have investigated breakeven points in Earth vs. lunar-derived propellants, similar analyses focused on the smaller scale consumable demand from human crews have not garnered as much attention due to the economies of scale in propulsion-based use cases. Despite the lower demand of oxygen and water from initial lunar habitats, the de-risking of in-situ resource utilization (ISRU) technologies while reducing logistical resupply from Earth could yield increasingly sustainable mission architectures while fundamentally demonstrating the economic validity of a lunar-based commodity market. Considering the deferment of mass and energy intensive liquefaction systems and leveraging the power generation capabilities of initial lunar habitats during uncrewed periods, ISRU technologies may trade similarly to regenerative environmental control and life support (ECLS) systems, but with the prospect of longer-term economic benefits. This paper investigates possible breakeven points in system mass, logistical resupply, and associated cost between representative ISRU and ECLS architectures supporting near-term lunar habitation concepts.