Leveraging Explainable Artificial Intelligence for Place-Based and Quantitative Strategies in Urban Pluvial Flooding Management

Reducing urban pluvial flooding susceptibility requires identifying dominant variables in different regions and offering quantitative management strategies, which remains a challenge for existing methodologies. To address this, this study delves into the characteristics of SHAP’s (Shapley Additive exPlanations) local interpretability and proposes a novel and concise framework based on explainable artificial intelligence (ensemble learning-SHAP) and applies it to the central urban area of Guangzhou as a case study. The research findings are as follows: (1) This framework captures the nonlinear and threshold effects of flood drivers, identifying specific inflection points where landscape features shift from mitigating to exacerbating flooding. (2) Anthropogenic variables, specifically impervious surface density (ISD) and vegetation (kNDVI), are identified as the dominant variables driving susceptibility in urban hotspots at the grid scale. (3) The interpretability results demonstrate high stability across model iterations. Finally, based on these findings, this study provides place-based and quantitative pluvial flooding management recommendations: for areas dominated by impervious surfaces and vegetation, maintaining the impervious surface density below 0.8 and the kNDVI above 0.25 can effectively reduce the susceptibility to urban flooding. This study provides a framework for achieving place-based and quantitative flooding management and offers valuable scientific insights for flooding management, urban planning, and sustainable urban development in the central district of Guangzhou, as well as in broader developing regions.