Last-Mile or Overreach? Behavior-Validated Park Boundaries for Equitable Access: Evidence from Tianjin

Urban park accessibility is often planned with fixed service radii, that is, circular walking catchments around each park defined by a maximum walking distance of about 1500 m, roughly a 15–20 min walk in this study, yet real visitation is uneven and dynamic, leaving persistent gaps between normative coverage and where people actually originate. We propose an interpretable discovery-to-parameter workflow that converts behavior evidence into localized accessibility and actionable planning guidance. Monthly Origin–Destination (OD) and heatmap samples are fused to construct visitation intensity on a 200 m grid and derive empirical park service boundaries. Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR) then quantifies spatial heterogeneity, and its local coefficients are embedded into the enhanced two-step floating catchment area (E2SFCA) model as location-specific supply weights and distance-decay bandwidths. Compared with network isochrones and uncalibrated E2SFCA, the MGWR–E2SFCA achieves higher Jaccard overlap and lower population-weighted error, while maintaining balanced coverage–precision across districts and day types. A Δ-surface lens decomposes gains into corridor correction and envelope contraction, revealing where conventional radii over- or under-serve residents. We further demonstrate an event-sensitivity switch, in which temporary adjustments of demand and decay parameters can accommodate short-term inflows during events such as festivals without contaminating the planning baseline. Together, the framework offers a transparent toolset for diagnosing mismatches between normative standards and observed use, prioritizing upgrades in under-served neighborhoods, and stress-testing park systems under recurring demand shocks. For land planning, it pinpoints where barriers to access should be reduced and where targeted connectivity improvements, public realm upgrades, and park capacity interventions can most effectively improve urban park accessibility.