Ground Settlement Susceptibility Assessment in Urban Areas Using PSInSAR and Ensemble Learning: An Integrated Geospatial Approach

Ground settlement is a multifaceted geological phenomenon driven by natural and man-made forces, posing a significant impediment to sustainable urban development. Thus, ground settlement susceptibility (GSS) mapping has emerged as a critical tool for understanding and mitigating cascading hazards in seismically active and anthropogenically modified sedimentary basins. Here, we develop an integrated framework for assessing GSS in the Pohang region, South Korea, by integrating Persistent Scatterer Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (PSInSAR)-derived vertical land motion (VLM) data with seismological, geotechnical, and topographic parameters (i.e., peak ground acceleration (PGA), effective shear-wave velocity (Vs30), site period (Ts), general amplification factor (AF), seismic vulnerability index (Kg), soil depth, topographic slope, and landform classes) through ensemble machine learning models such as Random Forest (RF), XGBoost, and Decision Tree (DT). Analysis of 56 Sentinel-1 SLC images (2017–2023) revealed persistent subsidence concentrated in Quaternary alluvium, reclaimed coastal plains, and basin-fill deposits. Among the tested models, RF achieved the best performance and strongly agreed with field evidence of sand boils, liquefaction, and structural damage from the 2017 Pohang earthquake. The very-high-susceptibility zones exhibited mean subsidence rates of −3.21 mm/year, primarily within soft sediments (Vs30 < 360 m/s) and areas of thick alluvium deposits. Integration of the optimal RF-based GSS index with regional building inventories revealed that nearly 65% of existing buildings fell within high- to very-high-susceptibility zones. The proposed framework demonstrates that integrating PSInSAR and ensemble learning provides a robust and transferable approach for quantifying ground settlement hazards and supporting risk-informed urban planning in seismically active and complex geological coastal environments.