Leverage points for transformative change towards nature inclusivity on Bonaire and Aruba

Abstract Transformative change for a just and sustainable world is urgent to halt and reverse biodiversity loss and climate change. Identifying leverage points for transformative change is crucial but difficult due to the complexity and interconnectedness of systems, compounded by uncertainty and diverse stakeholder views. This study identifies critical leverage points and levers for a nature‐inclusive future in Bonaire and Aruba, small islands with socio‐economic and environmental challenges. Additionally, it assesses the effectiveness of backcasting in facilitating this process. The study found four main leverage points: practice just governance, build nature‐inclusive infrastructure, shifting economy and connect nature and identity. Short‐term socio‐economic needs and institutional arrangements (e.g. land ownership, enforcement) significantly hinder long‐term planning, underscoring the complexity of transformative change in small tropical islands. Additionally, economic priorities and a weakening human–nature connection, along with governance, land use and infrastructure variations, are shared concerns. Identified levers within leverage points fall into two categories: hard levers on enforcement, regulation and incentives, and soft levers on education, culture, knowledge sharing and capacity building. Reflecting on backcasting as a method for identifying leverage points and levers, despite being time‐consuming and requiring intensive facilitation, proves valuable for discussions. Concentrating on specific themes within the nature‐inclusive vision and ensuring careful facilitation results in more coherent and actionable outcomes. Synthesis and applications : Analysing the leverage points and levers in Bonaire and Aruba uncovers significant barriers and opportunities, offering valuable lessons for achieving a nature‐inclusive future on small tropical islands. Furthermore, backcasting enhances the understanding of nature inclusive pathways in complex, resource‐constrained environments. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.