Bioeconomy and Climate Change: The Scenarios of Food Insecurity in Brazil’s Northern Region (Amazon) Due to the Shift from Traditional Table Crops to Globally Valued Commodities

Climate variability directly influences agriculture, especially in a scenario of global change and transition to a sustainable bioeconomy. This study analyzed historical series (1994-2023) of productivity and harvested area of annual crops (corn, cassava, and beans) and perennial crops (pineapple, cocoa, annatto, avocado, and guava), in order to understand the relationship between rainfall, maximum temperature, and agricultural production in northern Brazil. To achieve this, the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test was applied to verify the stationarity of the series, and principal component analysis (PCA) was used to identify correlation patterns between climate and production variables. The ADF test showed that annual precipitation is stationary, while maximum temperature is non-stationary, confirming a warming trend. Among the crops, only bean productivity was stationary, albeit at low levels, while corn, cassava, and cocoa showed non-stationary behavior, reflecting technological advances combined with climatic pressures. PCA indicated different responses: corn showed a positive association with temperature, but signs of recent stagnation, whereas cassava and beans depended more on precipitation, demonstrating vulnerability to drought. Among perennials, avocado and guava responded positively to increased temperature, while annatto and pineapple were more dependent on rainfall. Cocoa showed a balanced correlation with both variables. It can be concluded that climate impacts on agriculture are heterogeneous and require specific adaptive strategies. From a bioeconomy perspective, the importance of productive diversification, technological innovation, and public policies aimed at climate resilience and the sustainability of low-carbon value chains is highlighted.

Authors

Institutions

Publication Details

Journal
Foods
Published
2025-12-03
DOI
https://doi.org/10.3390/foods14234146
Primary Topic
Bioeconomy and Sustainability Development
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00
Controls
|||
ALL TIME
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
article

Bioeconomy and Climate Change: The Scenarios of Food Insecurity in Brazil’s Northern Region (Amazon) Due to the Shift from Traditional Table Crops to Globally Valued Commodities

Alex Santos da Silva, J.E.P. Santos, Celson Lima, Alberício Pereira de Andrade et al.
Foods
Bioeconomy and Sustainability Development
article

Bioeconomy and Climate Change: The Scenarios of Food Insecurity in Brazil’s Northern Region (Amazon) Due to the Shift from Traditional Table Crops to Globally Valued Commodities

Alex Santos da Silva, J.E.P. Santos, Celson Lima, Alberício Pereira de Andrade, Larice Marinho, Bergson Guedes Bezerra, Gabriel Brito Costa, Raoni Aquino Silva de Santana, Iracenir Andrade dos Santos, Keila Rêgo Mendes, Eliandra de Freitas Sia, Daniela Pauletto, Matheus Dullius de Lima, Lucas de Brito Silva, André Alisson Rodrigues da Silva, Hildo Giuseppe Garcia Caldas Nunes, Theomar Neves, Francisco de Assis da Silva, Roberto Luiz Souza Monteiro, Waldeir dos Santos Pereira, Celeste Queiroz Rossi, Marcos César da Rocha Seruffo, Lucas Vaz Peres, Cláudio Moisés Santos e Silva, Aldeíze Santos Tribuzy, Iolanda Maria Soares Reis, Túlio Silva Lara, Letícia Moreira, Antônio Ricardo Cárdia Ferraz de Andrade, Petia Oliveira, João Pedro Ambrósio Barros, Pio Lima-Netto
article en

Abstract

Climate variability directly influences agriculture, especially in a scenario of global change and transition to a sustainable bioeconomy. This study analyzed historical series (1994-2023) of productivity and harvested area of annual crops (corn, cassava, and beans) and perennial crops (pineapple, cocoa, annatto, avocado, and guava), in order to understand the relationship between rainfall, maximum temperature, and agricultural production in northern Brazil. To achieve this, the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test was applied to verify the stationarity of the series, and principal component analysis (PCA) was used to identify correlation patterns between climate and production variables. The ADF test showed that annual precipitation is stationary, while maximum temperature is non-stationary, confirming a warming trend. Among the crops, only bean productivity was stationary, albeit at low levels, while corn, cassava, and cocoa showed non-stationary behavior, reflecting technological advances combined with climatic pressures. PCA indicated different responses: corn showed a positive association with temperature, but signs of recent stagnation, whereas cassava and beans depended more on precipitation, demonstrating vulnerability to drought. Among perennials, avocado and guava responded positively to increased temperature, while annatto and pineapple were more dependent on rainfall. Cocoa showed a balanced correlation with both variables. It can be concluded that climate impacts on agriculture are heterogeneous and require specific adaptive strategies. From a bioeconomy perspective, the importance of productive diversification, technological innovation, and public policies aimed at climate resilience and the sustainability of low-carbon value chains is highlighted.

FoodsVol. 14(23)
Brazilian Institute of Environment and Renewable Natural Resources (BR), Universidade Federal do Oeste do Pará (BR), Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte (BR), Universidade Federal do Pará (BR)
Openalex Percentile: Top 47%
Bioeconomy and Sustainability Development
DOIOpen Access PDFOpenAlex
AI Navigator

Ask Laika to Summarize, Analyze, and Connect papers live on the map.

Summarize Papers & Methodologies

Extract key findings, datasets, and comparative methods across publications.

Benchmark Rankings & Visual Analytics

Rank top research institutions, authors, funders, topics, and journals by Field-Weighted Citation Impact (FWCI) and paper volume with instant charts.

Connect Distant Disciplines

Bridge topological clusters on the map to find hidden collaborative intersections.