Impact of Seafloor Morphology on Regional Sea Level Rise in the Japan Trench Region

Seafloor morphology forms regional sea level rise (SLR), affecting ocean circulation. Although many studies have examined global sea level rise, there remains a lack of analyses that show how seafloor morphology modifies the rate and character of regional SLR. Previous studies have rarely investigated the geophysical interactions between seafloor morphology and sea level modulation, leaving a gap in explaining the spatial variability of sea level trends and accelerations. The aim of the study is to assess the impact of seafloor morphology on the regional rate and character of Sea Level Rise (SLR) in the western Pacific, in the Japan Trench region. Seafloor morphology, through its interactions with gravity and circulation processes, is a major factor in how SLR trends and accelerations are determined across different locations. The analysis is based on hybrid datasets: numerical models, bathymetric data, and altimetric time series of sea level anomalies (SLA) from 1993 to 2023. SLR trends, seasonal and nodal cycles were determined at 78 virtual stations. Regional rates of sea level changes were estimated using linear regression, harmonic analysis, Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT), and Kalman filtering. Future SLR was simulated using a modified Monte Carlo method with an AR(1) autoregressive model and a block bootstrap technique. The results indicated that SLR trends are positively correlated (r ≈ 0.9) with mean dynamic topography (MDT) and negatively correlated with depth (r ≈ –0.4), confirming the impact of ocean circulation and seafloor morphology on regional SLR. The strong, positive correlation of trends with the amplitude of the 18.61-year nodal cycle (r > 0.8) indicates the important role of long-term tidal components. The highest SLR accelerations (up to 1.7 mm/yr2) were observed in locations of seamounts and subduction zones, while in the ocean trench, the rate of change stabilized or inversed locally. The results confirm the research hypothesis—the regional rate of sea level rise depends on the morphology of the seafloor and the associated geophysical and dynamic processes. The results have wide global application, supporting the implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals, the development of marine protection and management policies, infrastructure planning and coastal safety.