Climate, habitat availability and human activity shape the wintering distribution of an increasing migratory piscivorous raptor within the Mediterranean basin

Ongoing global change, including climate warming, biodiversity loss and land‐use shifts, is altering the distribution and population dynamics of many taxa. The Osprey Pandion haliaetus is a monotypic, piscivorous raptor that is currently shifting migratory behaviour and distribution patterns due to environmental changes. The species' migration across the Western Palaearctic has shortened, with the western Mediterranean basin becoming an increasingly important wintering area. In this study, we used a long‐term dataset of field surveys (five wintering seasons between 2015 and 2024) and applied Species Distribution Models at a regional scale (50 × 50‐km cells) to understand the processes governing spatial and temporal variation in wintering occupancy and abundance of the species within the Iberian Peninsula. In particular, we investigated the climatic, habitat‐related and anthropogenic drivers of the wintering presence and density of the species. Our models suggested that structural landscape variables such as wetlands, continental water bodies and human footprint positively influenced the initial occupancy and/or abundance within Iberia, while seasonal climate variables, especially winter temperature but also cumulated precipitation, highly determined the inter‐annual recruitment and disappearance within the cells. Ospreys were distributed nearer fish farms than expected for a random distribution, involving an ecological trade‐off as these infrastructures provide superabundant and predictable food for piscivorous birds but are an increasing mortality risk in the region. Altogether, our results suggest that southwestern Iberia may become a key wintering stronghold for European Ospreys under future climate scenarios, with important implications for conservation and management.