A strategic national energy consumption management model for long-term sustainability in achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions in the industrial sector

Abstract This research aims to develop a model that serves as a national governance framework for formulating effective and sustainable emission reduction strategies toward achieving net-zero GHG emissions in the industrial sector. The study developed an advanced Path PG-GMM model, which demonstrates full validity based on appropriate measurement criteria, with no spurious relationships detected. This model significantly differs from previous models in terms of its efficiency in measuring causal relationships among variables, resulting in white noise without issues of autocorrelation, multicollinearity, or heteroscedasticity. Moreover, it provides substantially higher forecasting accuracy compared to earlier models. The model outperforms previous models in terms of performance and is highly suitable for decision-making and strategic planning in directing national management towards net-zero emissions by 2065. This study has found that the most appropriate new scenario policy includes the following indicators: clean technology rate, biomass energy rate, renewable energy rate, electric vehicle rate, waste biomass rate, biofuel oil consumption rate, biofertilizer rate, solar cell rate, ecotourism rate, and income distribution rate. Each indicator exhibits a high sensitivity level. When these policies were applied for future forecasting (2025–2065), greenhouse gas emissions increased at a decreasing rate, reaching 483.01 Mt CO 2 Eq., with a growth rate of 85.19%, which remains below the carrying capacity limit. Furthermore, if the government implements policies based on these indicators, greenhouse gas emissions in 2065 are projected to decrease by 58.05%, surpassing the government’s reduction target. Therefore, based on the research findings, the Path PG-GMM model proves to be an effective and efficient decision-making tool for guiding national policies toward achieving net-zero GHG emissions by 2065 in a sustainable manner. However, Thailand’s key national policy focuses on governing the country in alignment with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by promoting balanced growth in the economic, social, and environmental dimensions. The country has established several primary indicators, including the clean technology rate, biomass energy rate, green material rate, renewable energy rate, electric vehicle rate, waste biomass rate, biofuel oil consumption rate, biofertilizer rate, solar cell rate, ecotourism rate, and income distribution rate, all of which are consistent with the indicators selected for use in this study.