Company risk-opportunity analysis in conditions of high volatility

The article examines modern theoretical and applied approaches to Risk-Opportunity Analysis (ROA) in the context of unprecedented volatility of the external economic environment. We propose an innovative economic and mathematical model based on a deep integration of scenario analysis methods and fuzzy theory. It ensures an accurate and comprehensive assessment of risk dynamics. The model facilitates the quantitative assessment of various risk – financial, operational, strategic, and reputational ones. It also identifies the key opportunities in terms of innovative technologies and business model adaptation. Model testing based on sampling data from one of a leading company, 2018-2024. The experimental results demonstrate the high effectiveness and predictive value of model proposed. The research proposes a holistic approach to incorporate both quantitative and qualitative volatility factors, provides realistic and actionable foundation for managerial decision-making. The results obtained show a significant practical potential. Moreover, they ensure companies’ strategic resilience, adaptability to changes, proactive future management, and ultimately secure sustainable competitive advantages.