Cross-border Crime Dynamics in Federal Systems: Spatial Analysis of Institutional Effectiveness and Criminal Activity Across Indian States

This study examines how institutional effectiveness mediates between economic development and criminal behaviour across jurisdictional boundaries in India’s federal system. Using institutional anomie theory and spatial dynamic panel methods, we analyse five crime categories across 30 states from 2002 to 2021. Our findings reveal striking cross-border spillover effects that conventional analysis misses. Enhanced police capacity in neighbouring states creates asymmetric displacement, reducing murder while increasing crimes against women in adjacent jurisdictions. Correctional policies displace crimes against children and property crimes across boundaries. Educational advantages and unemployment in neighbouring states create vulnerability patterns that increase multiple crime types through strain mechanisms. Economic development generates regional strain effects rather than protective benefits, with neighbouring states’ prosperity substantially increasing murder, crimes against children and property crimes in adjacent jurisdictions. These displacement effects challenge traditional deterrence frameworks, demonstrating that state-level crime control creates unintended consequences that extend across borders. Federal systems require coordinated regional approaches rather than isolated strategies to combat crime effectively.