A theory of change for transformation of the productive forest system in the United Kingdom

Abstract Forests globally are facing increasing threats related to environmental crises, including climate change, deforestation, land-use change, increasing spread of pests and diseases, and agricultural intensification. At the same time, forests are expected to play a vital role in addressing these crises, requiring transformational change in forest systems and silvicultural practices. This paper develops a conceptual theory of change for this transformation in the context of the productive forest system in the UK. It draws on a participatory backcasting exercise with academics, policymakers, and forest industry practitioners to scope out what products and services future productive forests will need to deliver and to identify challenges to realizing those. The theory of change sets out four areas for action to meet this vision: transformative governance; knowledge exchange and skills development; innovative financing; and research and data access. Actions are identified, with the final goal of achieving productive forest systems in the UK that are climate resilient, biodiverse, and provide diverse products and services through a sustainable forest bioeconomy. The theory of change provides a framework for developing a feasible pathway to transformation and monitoring progress towards a set of desired intermediate and long-term outcomes.