From malthusian fears to reality: to the question of the demographic crisis in modern Russia

The demographic crisis in Russia, characterised by persistent depopulation, an ageing population, and changes in family structure, poses systemic risks to social and economic stability. Despite a significant amount of research, a comprehensive analysis of the relationship between demographic trends and contemporary challenges (the consequences of lockdowns, geopolitical instability) remains underdeveloped. The aim of this paper is to identify key indicators of the demographic crisis in Russia and assess the socio-economic consequences. To achieve this aim, the following tasks were set: to analyse the dynamics of key demographic indicators, assess the impact of demographic changes, and identify systemic risks and potential consequences of current demographic trends. The study employed methods of statistical analysis of data from Rosstat (on natural growth, birth rates, mortality, marriage rates, and household structure), comparative analysis of the effectiveness of demographic policy in Russia and China, and economic-demographic modelling of the consequences of demographic transformations. The findings of the research revealed that the main indicators of the crisis – negative natural population growth, an ageing society, decreased transformation, and structural changes in families – have a destructive impact on the economy, evident in the reduction of labour resources, pressure on the pension system, and on the social sphere, manifested in the degradation of rural areas and increased loneliness. It was established that negative natural growth in 2023 and the rising demographic burden lead to a decrease in labour resources and an imbalance in the pension system. There is a significant predominance of childless and one-child families, with an extremely low proportion of multi-child families. Some inadequacy of state support measures was identified. The conclusions drawn may be applied in the development of state demographic policy aimed at stimulating birth rates, supporting young families, and creating a stable socio-economic environment. A limitation of the study is the lack of data for certain periods, which opens avenues for future research, including an in-depth analysis of regional differences.