The impact of science and technology finance on new quality productive forces: Evidence from China

• The overall development level of NQPFs exhibits a consistently ascending trend. • STF serves as a pivotal engine to advance the development of NQPFs. • ISU has a partial mechanistic effect within STF-NQPFs. • The double threshold and spatial spillover effects are identified in STF-NQPFs. As a powerful tool of modern financial system, science and technology finance (sci-tech finance, STF) provides solid support for upgrading industrial structure (ISU) and advancing new quality productive forces (NQPFs). Based on Chinese provincial panel data spanning 2013–2023, the entropy-weighted TOPSIS method is employed to quantify the index of new quality productive forces. Subsequently, the effects and mechanism of sci-tech finance on new quality productive forces are empirically investigated. The results indicate that, firstly, the overall development level of new quality productive forces shows a monotonous upward trajectory during the sample period. Secondly, sci-tech finance exerts a significant promotion effect on new quality productive forces, a conclusion that remains valid after undergoing a battery of robustness tests. Thirdly, there is a remarkable regional heterogeneity in the influence of sci-tech finance on new quality productive forces. Fourthly, sci-tech finance indirectly empowers new quality productive forces through the channel of industrial structure upgrading. Finally, the double threshold effect and significant spatial spillover effects are identified in the impact of sci-tech finance on new quality productive forces. These findings offer valuable insights for innovating sci-tech finance policies and promoting new quality productive forces. This study contributes to the literature by emphasizing the dynamic evolutionary trends between sci-tech finance and new quality productive forces.