Pro-independence feelings and the economic impacts of a secession: a study for the region of Catalonia

This paper examines the relationship between Catalan citizens’ pro-independence attitudes and the potential job losses that could arise from a hypothetical secession from Spain. The analysis is based on data collected by the Centre for Sociological Research (CIS) following the 2017 Catalan parliamentary elections. Multi-regional input-output tables with regional detail at the NUTS 2 level are used to measure the jobs-at-risk under three trade-disruption scenarios: (1) a break in economic relations with the rest of Spain, (2) with Portugal, and (3) with the European Union (EU). The results reveal that citizens working in sectors more economically interdependent with markets from the Rest of Spain tended to display a larger support for independence, while the effects for Portugal and the European Union were weaker or statistically insignificant. The results also underscore the importance of providing clear and reliable information on the potential individual-level economic consequences of secession.