Analyzing Grassland Reduction and Woody Vegetation Expansion in Protected Sky Island of Northwest Mexico

Woody encroachment (WE) refers to the expansion of woody vegetation, particularly scrubs, into grasslands, altering ecosystem structure, function, and vegetation phenology. WE is especially pronounced in arid and semi-arid regions, where climate variability, land use, and ecological resilience interact strongly. Even though long-term monitoring of these dynamics in protected areas is essential to understanding landscape change and guiding conservation strategies, a few studies address this. The Flora and Fauna Protection Area (FFPA) Bavispe, a sky island in northwestern Mexico, provides an ideal setting to examine WE. Using remote sensing, we analyzed 30 years of land cover change (Landsat 5 TM and Landsat 8 OLI) in two reserve zones, Los Ajos and La Madera, and their 5 km buffer areas. Additionally, NDVI-based regressions (MODIS MOD13Q1) were applied to assess phenological responses across vegetation types. Classifications showed high accuracy (Kappa > 0.75) and revealed notable woody expansion: 960 ha of oak forest and 1322 ha of scrubland gained in Los Ajos, and 1420 ha of scrubland in La Madera. Grasslands declined by 2234 ha in Los Ajos and 1486 ha in La Madera, with stronger trends in surrounding buffers. Phenologically, the onset of the growing season was delayed by ~2 days per year in Los Ajos and ~3 days in La Madera. A generalized increment of woody vegetation in the region and the observed change in phenophases in selected land cover types indicated a shift in regional drivers (human or other ecological state factor) related to land cover distribution.