The Spatiotemporal Patterns and Driving Mechanisms of Cultivated Land Conversion to Non-Agricultural Uses in Jiangsu Province, China

Exploring the spatiotemporal patterns of cultivated land conversion to non-agricultural uses and their evolutionary driving mechanisms is of significant importance for regional cultivated land protection and food security. This study utilizes time-series land use datasets, DEM, meteorological data, and statistical yearbook data to construct an assessment model for the rate of cultivated land conversion to non-agricultural uses. Based on this model, the study conducts spatial autocorrelation analysis and locational gradient analysis to systematically investigate the characteristics and driving mechanisms of cultivated land conversion to non-agricultural uses in Jiangsu Province from 2000 to 2023. The study revealed several key findings: (1). The total area of cultivated land in Jiangsu Province has demonstrated a trend of ‘initial continuous decline followed by a slight recovery after 2015.’ Spatially, it exhibits a distribution pattern characterized by ‘continuous reduction around urban areas, with relative stability in the northern core regions’. (2). The temporal pattern of cultivated land conversion to non-agricultural use in Jiangsu Province follows a trajectory of ‘rapid expansion (2000–2015) followed by a gradual slowdown (2015–2023),’ with significant gradient differences observed spatially (‘Southern Jiangsu > Central Jiangsu > Northern Jiangsu’). (3). The conversion of cultivated land to non-agricultural use in Jiangsu Province results from the combined effects of natural constraints, socio-economic driving factors, and agricultural policies. Topographical constraints and urban radiation have emerged as the primary spatial conditions promoting non-agriculturalization, with urban expansion identified as the most direct driving factor of cultivated land conversion in recent years. Conversely, agricultural factors have exerted a relatively weaker influence on non-agriculturalization. These research findings provide a significant scientific basis for formulating differentiated cultivated land protection policies across the province, thereby assisting in achieving a balance between food security and coordinated urban–rural development.