A Spatiotemporal Analysis of the Relationship Between Construction Land Supply and High-Quality Urban Development: Evidence from 285 Chinese Cities

As the spatial carrier of urban development, construction land is a fundamental element for achieving high-quality urban development (HQUD). This study examines the impact of construction land supply on HQUD across 285 Chinese cities. A HQUD evaluation model is created to assess each city’s development level. The GTWR model is then applied to explore the dynamic spatial effects of land supply on HQUD level. The results show the following: (1) The construction land supply exhibited a fluctuating trend accompanied by notable spatial disparities, with hotspots concentrated in coastal areas and cold spots in the northwest and northeast. (2) The HQUD levels consistently increased, forming a stepwise spatial pattern—highest in the east, followed by central and western regions—with localized spatial convergence. (3) The factors influencing HQUD are highly volatile. Industrial agglomeration, resource optimization, and land investment returns drive commercial land supply, investment intensity, and land prices, fostering positive development. However, excessive population density and inadequate public service land may impose pressure on resources and strained public services, hindering progress. Industrial land supply has supported industrial upgrading, shifting its impact from negative to positive. Over-reliance on real estate development can cause resource waste, social instability, and hinder sustainability, reversing the positive effects of residential land supply. This paper clarifies the complex relationship between construction land supply and HQUD, providing empirical guidance for region-specific land supply strategies.