Matrix-Based Assessment of Direct and Indirect Impacts of CAP Sectoral Interventions on Agricultural Production: An Ex-Ante Example of Poland

Ex-ante appraisal of agricultural policy needs a transparent way to trace how sectoral interventions translate into production. We study the Polish CAP case and ask how much selected actions matter for livestock sectors. We assembled intervention-level budgets from the CAP Strategic Plan for Poland (2023–2027) and sectoral final output for milk, pigs, beef and poultry from Statistics Poland/Eurostat. We built matrices that map actions to sectors, normalized transfers by sectoral output, and separated dedicated from spillover effects. We report two cross-sections (2024, 2028) and a robustness test that perturbs I 1–I 2 allocation shares by ±10% under fixed envelopes. Horizontal income support dominates. In 2024, the cumulative effect of all analyzed actions equaled 16.68% of final output in milk, 14.43% in beef, 5.15% in pigs and 4.29% in poultry; by 2028, these values ease to 15.07%, 12.93%, 3.84% and 4.15%. Coupled payments to cows and young cattle add contributions in milk and beef. The ±10% reweighting of I 1–I 2 keeps the sector ranking unchanged; level changes are moderate (about 0.4–1.2 percentage points). A compact matrix approach provides a replicable map from interventions to sectors and highlights the preponderance of horizontal income support. The pattern—strongest relative support in milk and beef—appears robust to plausible allocation uncertainty. The main limitation is the use of final output as a revenue proxy; extending the matrix to all CAP actions and adding price–quantity feedback would be a natural next step. Policy implication: modest rebalancing of I 1–I 2 shares will not overturn sectoral exposure, but adjustments targeted at beef move levels the most.