A Virtual Water-Based Framework for Alleviating Regional Food Shortage in China: Modeling and Optimal Allocation

The spatial mismatch between grain production and water resources in China poses significant challenges to food security. This study examines Heilongjiang Province, a major grain-producing region, to explore pathways for enhancing food security through virtual water redistribution. By calculating the virtual water content of typical exported crops and integrating micro- and macroeconomic models, we coupled socio-economic benefits to develop a multi-objective allocation framework centered on “comprehensive benefits”. This framework forms the basis of a grain allocation model grounded in virtual water trade. Our study identifies eight typical grain-deficient regions, including Beijing and Shanghai, and demonstrates that Heilongjiang Province can meet their demands through virtual water transfers. The results reveal significant differences in allocation structures across crops and regions, reflecting heterogeneity in regional demands and resource endowments. This research provides theoretical insights and strategic directions for alleviating food security issues under imbalanced resource distribution, though practical application of the model requires further consideration of regional constraints.