Assessment of Competitiveness and Complementarity in Agri-Food Trade Between the European Union and Mercosur Countries

The EU–Mercosur agri-food trade is characterized by strong asymmetries reflecting long-standing structural differences between the two blocs. With the EU–Mercosur Agreement moving toward ratification, assessing these long-term trade patterns is essential for anticipating how liberalization may reshape comparative advantages and adjustment pressures in agri-food sectors. The analysis applies four quantitative indicators: the Revealed Comparative Advantage index (RCA), the Trade Complementarity Index (TCI), the Trade Intensity Index (TII), and the Export Similarity Index (ESI). Mercosur shows strong comparative advantages in raw and semi-processed commodities such as soybeans, meat, sugar and maize, while the EU specializes in higher value-added processed foods. High TCI values indicate strong alignment between Mercosur’s export structure and EU import demand, while low ESI values reveal limited direct competition. Low TII values suggest unrealized cooperation potential. Findings highlight both opportunities and vulnerabilities for agri-food sectors under future trade liberalization.