Dynamic connectedness and systemic risk in global futures: evidence from cryptocurrency, financial, and commodity markets

This study explores the dynamic volatility spillovers and interconnectedness between cryptocurrency and traditional futures markets. Using a multi-method approach that integrates wavelet coherence analysis, TVP-VAR connectedness, and DCC-GARCH modeling, the research identifies notable shifts in spillover patterns during crises, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the FTX collapse, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The results reveal that the correlations between Bitcoin futures and traditional asset classes depend on the market conditions and intensify during crises. The connectedness analysis shows that Bitcoin futures play a dual role, acting as a transmitter of long-term shocks and a receiver of short-term shocks during periods of crisis. Equity futures emerged as the primary long-term transmitters of shocks, whereas other assets acted as shock receivers during the pandemic. Furthermore, the study evaluates hedge ratios and portfolio weights using the DCC-GARCH model. The portfolio analysis reveals that Bitcoin futures require a minimal allocation within diversified portfolios, suggesting their limited effectiveness as a hedge and safe-haven asset. These results aim to inform portfolio managers in developing efficient hedging strategies and assist regulators in monitoring financial market stability. This study fills gaps in the existing literature by understanding how decentralized financial instruments interact with financial markets and providing insights into risk management in modern markets.