Spatiotemporal changes in the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems and analysis of driving factors: A case study of Hainan Province

Hainan Province is a key region for investigating carbon balance dynamics in tropical ecosystems. This study used the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and tradeoffs (InVEST) model and an improved net ecosystem productivity (NEP) model to simulate the spatial distribution of carbon balance in Hainan Province's terrestrial ecosystems and identify key driving factors. Results show that carbon balance values are higher in the central region and lower in the periphery, increasing from coastal to inland areas. The central region, with its elevated terrain and dense forest cover, shows greater capacity for carbon absorption and conversion, leading to higher carbon balance. In contrast, coastal areas exhibit lower carbon stocks, mainly due to human disturbances. Land-use changes driven by humans are the primary factor shaping the spatial distribution of carbon balance. Thus, green planning and development should prioritize high carbon-emission areas to restore and enhance ecosystem carbon sink functions.