Why Did Putin Invade Ukraine? Why Did Hamas Attack Israel? Answers Suggested by Economic Models of Dictatorship and Terrorism

Abstract In this paper I use rational economic models to explain the origins of two recent wars, the invasion of Ukraine by Russia in 2022 and the Hamas attack on Israel in 2023. In both cases the literature has prominently featured two different kinds of motivations for the attacks, one offensive and one defensive. Did Russia invade Ukraine because it was afraid that Ukraine was getting too strong and too close to NATO and Russia was weakened by this? Or did it invade because Putin thought that the West was weak, particularly after the botched withdrawal from Afghanistan? Did Hamas attack Israel on October 7th because it was afraid that the other Arab countries were about to abandon the Palestinian cause and thus forever weaken it? Or did its leaders believe they could advance the Palestinian cause with a successful attack and withstand the Israeli response, having built a vast system of tunnels with money from Qatar, and possibly counting on help from Hezbollah and Iran? I address these questions in this paper with economic models. I use the models – of dictatorship and terrorism – developed in my previous work, to provide answers to these questions. In both cases, the models favor the offensive explanations of the attacks as opposed to the defensive ones. Russia attacked Ukraine because it thought it could win easily. Hamas attacked Israel because of its newfound strength.