DKformer: A Novel Transformer‐Based Model for Interval‐Valued Crude Oil Price Forecasting
ABSTRACT Most deep learning techniques are designed for point‐valued data, while interval‐valued data contain richer information over the same time period, especially during extreme events. To leverage this, we propose DKformer, a novel transformer architecture that models interval data as an inseparable set using the loss function. By combining transformers and loss, DKformer learns complex nonstationary and nonlinear patterns in interval data while accounting for uncertainties and dependencies. Compared to existing interval and point‐based benchmark models, DKformer significantly enhances crude oil price forecast accuracy. Remarkably, it demonstrates robust out‐of‐sample prediction performance across various forecast horizons. Furthermore, the effectiveness of DKformer is preserved even under extreme conditions, including Black Swan events. Our work highlights the potential for DKformer to enhance decision‐making in energy and finance, where robustness to uncertainty and the ability to handle extreme events hold paramount importance.
Authors
- Yuying Sun (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9525-7954)
- Shouyang Wang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5773-998X)
- Xinyu Zhang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9044-1410)
- Ruhong Cui
- Chuanmiao Yan (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0003-2473-6397)
Institutions
- Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CN)
- Chinese Academy of Sciences (CN)
- China Banking Regulatory Commission (CN)
- ShanghaiTech University (CN)
- Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science (CN)
- China Law Society (CN)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Journal of Forecasting
- Published
- 2025-12-01
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1002/for.70070
- Primary Topic
- Stock Market Forecasting Methods
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00