From toilets to trail plants′ species pool: comparable analysis of natural and anthropogenic factors affecting nature trail visitor numbers in Estonia

Visitor numbers on nature trails are rising globally due to the growing popularity of active lifestyles and nature tourism. Most of the nature trails in Estonia are located in protected areas, increasing anthropogenic pressure on these ecosystems. Although various factors, such as infrastructure or natural environment, influence visitation, studies that compare both anthropogenic and natural factors are scarce and usually local. Our study analyzed factors correlating with visitor numbers in Estonia, considering infrastructural, informational, natural, cultural, and accessibility related aspects. Fieldwork was conducted from 2019 to 2021, with additional data from databases and trail managers. Using a generalized linear model, we identified significant correlations between annual visitor numbers and certain key factors, including the number of trail road surface types, plant species diversity, parking capacity, and the number of toilets on trails. In contrast, factors such as distance to county centers, proximity to bus stops, certain accessibility aspects, and informational elements (maps and signs) showed no statistically significant associations. By understanding these drivers, trail managers can develop strategies that enhance visitor experience while protecting the fragile natural environment under increasing visitor pressure, balancing infrastructure provision and natural diversity in trail planning and management.