Global Predictions for Kidney Cancer Incidence and Mortality: Population-Based Comparative Situation Analysis from the Global Cancer Database

Background: Kidney cancer is a growing global concern, with sharp regional disparities driven by socioeconomic and healthcare inequities. While high-income countries benefit from medical advances, low- and middle-income regions face persistent challenges. Aging populations and urbanization are set to worsen the burden. Despite this, predictive global analyses remain scarce—this study addresses that critical gap by integrating epidemiologic trends with demographic projections. Methods: Kidney cancer incidence and mortality statistics for 2022 and projected figures for 2045 were extracted from GLOBOCAN and integrated with UN population estimates. A longitudinal, population-based approach was used to calculate age-standardized incidence and mortality rates (per 100,000) across six global regions as defined by the United Nations. Predictive modeling assessed these rates and underscored the disparities for kidney cancer in these regions for the future. Results: In 2022, Europe and Northern America exhibited the highest kidney cancer incidence (20.95 and 20.96) and mortality rates (7.00 and 4.55), while Africa and Asia recorded the lowest (incidence: 1.22 and 3.19; mortality: 0.72 and 1.27). By 2045, all regions will see increased rates, with Europe and Northern America reaching incidence rates above 24 and mortality nearing 10 and 6.5, respectively. Low rates in Asia and Africa are predicted based on current healthcare infra-structure, which are likely to increase with the advancement. Conclusion: Global kidney cancer burden is increasing, with persistent disparities between high- and low-income regions. The findings emphasize the urgent need for proactive strategies in low-resource settings to mitigate future morbidity and mortality through enhanced cancer control programs, early detection, and healthcare infrastructure development. Standardized Incidence and Mortality Rates for Kidney Cancer acoss continents in 2022 and 2045 - Region Incidence Rate 2022 Mortality Rate 2022 Incidence Rate 2045 Mortality Rate 2045 Africa 1.22 0.72 1.37 0.85 Asia 3.19 1.27 4.62 2.07 Europe 20.95 7.00 24.09 9.84 Latin America &Caribbean 5.49 2.36 8.21 3.79 Northern America 20.96 4.55 24.56 6.51 Oceania 11.14 3.52 14.17 5.01