A probabilistic framework for estimating roof panel failure in low-rise buildings subjected to tornado loads

This study develops a probabilistic risk assessment framework for evaluating the vulnerability of low-rise buildings subjected to tornado-induced wind loads. The framework integrates aerodynamic loads and a parametric tornado wind field model, and employs Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the probabilities of roof panel failures during a tornado event. Aerodynamic loads obtained from boundary layer wind tunnel testing, adjusted using the modification factors in ASCE 7–22, are incorporated into this framework. The framework captures the progressive roof panel failures by accounting for changes in internal pressures as a tornado passes over the building. The framework allows consideration of the tornado translation path (characterized by heading direction), the building’s location relative to the tornado center, and the position of openings on the walls. Through this framework, the likely location of the first roof panel failure can be identified probabilistically, and the occurrence probability of various damage states at different tornado intensities can be determined. These outcomes further enable estimation of tornado intensity based on observed damage levels. An illustrative example is included in the paper to demonstrate the application of the framework. This paper also discusses limitations in current aerodynamic and wind field modeling approaches, highlighting the need for improved understanding of vertical wind effects, turbulence characteristics, spatial correlation of wind pressures across building surfaces, and internal pressures modeling.