Trade flows and RTAs: Does Brexit matter after all?

After Brexit, the United Kingdom (UK) signed various regional trade agreements (RTAs) that had almost the same content with the same partners of the European Union. Using a gravity model, we show that these new RTAs failed to increase the UK trade. Indeed, while trade gains were chiefly attributed to the RTAs signed by the EU, the UK experienced trade diversion in the wake of Brexit. At the level of trade margins, whereas neither the level nor the growth rate of trade was affected by these RTAs, the latter were associated with a decrease in the number of traded products. • After Brexit, the United Kingdom (UK) signed various regional trade agreements (RTAs). • These RTAs had similar content and the same partners of the European Union. • Using a gravity model, we show that these RTAs failed to increase the UK trade. • The UK experienced trade diversion in the wake of Brexit. • New RTAs were associated with a decrease in the number of traded products.