Mapping malaria risk in India between 2019 and 2023: a tool for the public to track malaria

With less than two years remaining from 2027-the year which the government has targeted to achieve zero Indigenous cases, we map the malaria indicators across the 700 + districts for five years between 2019 and 2023 using spatiotemporal maps and also assess the potential drivers of malaria transmission in different regions. We used the annual district-wise malaria data from the National Center for Vector Borne Disease Control Programme (NCVBDC) and the cross-sectional socio-economic data from the National Family Health Survey. We also collated the meteorological and land-use land-cover data from the MERRA-2 and Sentinel-LPA satellites, respectively. We then developed region-specific ensembles of spatiotemporal models that allowed us to identify the associated covariates while the regions were identified using the Getis-Ord Gi* statistics. With 0.33 million malaria cases in 2019, the COVID-19 pandemic led to a significant reduction in reported cases. The P. falciparum affected regions are widespread in North-eastern and Central India. However, after the pandemic, an emerging geographical expansion into the north-eastern parts is observed for the P. vivax, which is evident from the clusters and the spatiotemporal ensemble models. Population belonging to scheduled castes and scheduled tribes and those economically marginalised are among the most vulnerable, but lifestyle habits such as drinking water practices, maternal education, and healthcare accessibility are associated with malaria transmission. We also developed a digital dashboard that allows the general public and the stakeholders to track the malaria indicators for each district and the corresponding year.