Long-term dynamics and distribution of large carnivores in Poland

The brown bear Ursus arctos, Eurasian lynx Lynx lynx, and gray wolf Canis lupus are Europe's threatened large carnivores. The analyses were conducted using data on the abundance of these species in Poland, collected by the Polish Central Statistical Office (bear 1965-2023, wolf 1995-2023, and lynx 1996-2023). For the years 2000-2023, data were also available by region. We subjected these data to statistical analysis: chi-square tests, segmented regression, and principal component analysis. Biplots, charts of population dynamics, and distribution maps were created to visualize the results. In Poland in the analyzed time period, an increase in the population of all three studied carnivores was observed along with the westward expansion of the territorial range of lynx and wolf, while bear range remained unchanged. The most mean population increase was exhibited by the gray wolf (7.01%), followed by the brown bear (4.78%) and, finally, the Eurasian lynx (2.94%). The population dynamics of the carnivores showed trends over time, with a notable increase in the last decade. The use of multi-year data in modelling enables a better understanding of the mechanisms governing the abundance and distribution of populations of endangered species. This, in turn, facilitates the planning of more effective conservation measures.