An econometric analysis of Egypt’s edible oil imports in the context of the pound floatation policy

Egypt is heavily dependent on imports to cover its domestic demand for oils; with imports averaging 6.58 million tons valued at approximately 82.56 billion Egyptian pounds during 2019–2023.These imports include liquid and fat vegetable oils as well as oilseeds to satisfy both household and industrial needs. The study aims to examine the key factors influencing Egypt’s oil imports, under the impact of implementing the Egyptian pound flotation policy in November 2016.The research using the simultaneous equations approach to analyze the structure of Egypt’s oil imports. Findings reveal that the contribution of both types of vegetable oils to domestic production showed a general upward trend, with statistically significant increases of approximately 4.572 and 27.517 thousand tons, a post-flotation. Contrary to expectations, imports of liquid vegetable oils increased by about 6.732 thousand metric tons, reflecting a notable growth rate between 2017 and 2023, while imports of vegetable fats declined by approximately 96.696 thousand metric tons, with an average annual decrease of 21.6%. Economic indicators further demonstrate that imports of liquid and fat oils, oilseeds, and palm oil rose by about 6.77%, 7.90%, 9.45%, and 1.8%, respectively, due to the flotation decision. However, imports of fat oils appeared largely unaffected, likely due to the substitution of these oils with lower-cost alternatives