Unravelling the influence of projected land use/land cover on surface water ecological status in Italian watersheds

This research examines the influence of land use and land cover (LULC) on water quality in Italian watersheds, with a focus on predicting the likelihood of achieving good surface water ecological status (SWES) under future scenarios (SSP2-RCP4.5 and SSP5-RCP8.5) for the years 2050 and 2100. The developed methodology includes remapping future LULC, conducting Principal Component Analysis to examine the interactions between land use classes and the impact of upstream LULC on downstream SWES, and regression analysis to predict future SWES. Future projections indicate a decline in SWES in human-influenced areas, but potential improvements in natural regions with conservation efforts. For both scenarios, over 60 % of Italian watersheds are expected to fail to achieve good SWES by 2050 and 2100, emphasizing the need for targeted land management strategies to mitigate these effects. This analysis represents valuable support for the development of adaptive strategies that safeguard water resources and ensure the long-term sustainability of freshwater ecosystems.