How Does Digital Economy Drive High-Quality Agricultural Development?—Based on a Dynamic QCA and NCA Combined Approach

This research explores the digital economy’s impact on high-quality agricultural development, with a particular focus on its effect on Agricultural Green Total Factor Productivity (AGTFP). By integrating Dynamic Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) and Necessary Condition Analysis (NCA) on data spanning from 2011 to 2023 across 31 Chinese provinces, the study produces the following results: (1) No single element of the digital economy alone is indispensable for enhancing AGTFP. Instead, its driving force stems from the synergistic interactions among multiple elements. Configuration analysis identifies four effective pathways to boost AGTFP: the financial–government dual-driver model, the infrastructure–government dual-driver model, the financial–resource dual-driver model and the industry-led driver model. (2) Regional disparities exist in the approaches to achieving high-quality agricultural development. The eastern region prioritizes the integration of finance and policy, while the central and western regions emphasize the synergy between infrastructure and government initiatives. (3) The identified pathways demonstrate temporal stability, with digital finance pathways exhibiting particularly high consistency over the study period, maintaining a temporal stability exceeding 0.85 in most years. This study combines the TOE framework with configuration analysis to enrich the theoretical framework of agricultural digitalization, revealing key pathways through which the digital economy can propel green agriculture development and offers empirical evidence to inform tailored digital agriculture policies.