Heterogeneity and trend of water conservancy productivity in China

New water conservancy productive forces (NWCPF) are critical for national hydrological security and high-quality water conservancy development, yet existing studies lack systematic evaluation, in-depth regional disparity analysis, and long-term prediction. This study addresses these gaps by constructing a five-dimensional evaluation system and employing the entropy weight method, Dagum Gini coefficient, spatial autocorrelation, and an optimized grey model to analyze 31 Chinese provinces from 2018 to 2023 and forecast trends through 2030. Results show national NWCPF increased steadily from 0.2121 in 2018–0.2219 in 2023, with inter-regional gaps accounting for 42.41–46.70 % of total disparity and forming an east high and west low pattern. positive spatial agglomeration existed with Global Moran’s I values from 0.1016 to 0.1304 (p < 0.05), and such forces are expected to rise but with a declining growth rate from 2024 to 2030. Theoretically, this study improves the evaluation of NWCPF, and practically, it provides guidance for smart water conservancy strategies in China’s 15th Five-Year Plan. • The entropy-weighted evaluation and Gini index, spatial analysis was combined. • The national water conservancy innovation index exhibited a tiered progression pattern. • Regional disparities primarily stemmed from inter-provincial development gaps.