Predicting Long-Term Care: Determinants of Probability

long-term care are reviewed to help understand the high-risk populations and plan accordingly. The challenges and barriers to adequately planning for future needs remain consistently dependent upon the personal characteristics of an individual, including socio-demographic factors and behaviors such as smoking. Research of multiple sources and data was completed to help identify high-risk groups as well as variables that impact the probability of the need for longterm care services and supports. Knowledge of predictors can help guide future research efforts, allocate funding and help improve quality of care. The functional status of an individual is a strong predictor of multiple health outcomes including mortality (Murphy and Cicilline, 1999). Professionals working in the long-term care industry continue to warn of the need to engage and prepare individuals and families by discussing important topics early and developing an aging life care plan. Aging demographics, along with the number of individuals living with one or more chronic health conditions into old age, place a demand on communities and individuals to be better prepared. Unfortunately, there has not been broad support by the general population to self-prepare. Many of the challenges revolve around the financial ability to pay for long-term care as many Americans do not adequately prepare for their own potential needs, often outliving their assets or relying heavily on public assistance. Perhaps this comes from the general uncertainty that may exist of whether an individual is truly going to need help. Determining this probability is often difficult, reliant on a multitude of variables and dependent upon the characteristics of each situation. Stakeholders, such as insurers and healthcare organizations, rely on evidencedbased practice to understand what their beneficiaries will need. Strategizing for proper allocation of funds requires an understanding of the situation and developing a care plan, or road map, for life long needs. Long-term care is often misunderstood. Society tends to identify long-term care with the frail, elderly person who is confined to a nursing home. However, baby boomers, due to their large cohort, are the highest risk for disability and need for long-term care (Knickman & Snell, 2002). The United States Department of Health and Human Services refers to long-term care as a range of services and supports to help individuals over a long period of time, which most often involves assistance with basic personal tasks of everyday life (Favreault & Dey, 2016). Identification of daily living needs is essential to long-term care planning. The civilian population spent an average of 9.59 hours per day performing personal care activities, such as bathing, dressing, and health related self-care, and over two hours per day preparing meals and eating (United States Department of Labor, 2018).