Road mortality risk of a protected felid across fragmented and heterogeneous landscapes in Central Europe

Roads are a major driver of habitat fragmentation, creating mosaic-structured landscapes where some species can adapt, and others struggle to survive. In increasingly fragmented landscapes, highly mobile species, including mammalian carnivores, are frequently exposed to roads as they move between habitat patches to access resources such as shelter and prey. However, understanding the factors influencing carnivores' road mortality in human-modified landscapes remains limited, partly due to a lack of data at broad spatial scales. Yet, the European wildcat (Felis silvestris) serves as an ideal model species to examine carnivore-vehicle collision risk across diverse environmental conditions, as it occupies large home ranges in diverse habitats. We conducted the first national-scale assessment of wildcat-vehicle collisions, applying a use-availability framework to 827 recorded collisions across Germany. Our study reveals a complex interplay of factors influencing wildcat road mortality in heavily fragmented and heterogeneous landscapes. The highest collision risk occurred on roads with intermediate to high expected traffic volumes, posted speed, and widths. Collision risk was higher in favourable habitats characterised by minimal built-up areas and low road density. The risk peaked in areas with moderate to dense tree cover and increased with higher habitat diversity, corresponding to areas where both refuge and hunting grounds occur. Using our model, we mapped wildcat-vehicle collision risk across Germany's road network, validating that existing mitigation measures are well placed and highlighting road sections where further intervention is needed to support the persistence of wildcat populations.