Energy trade, emissions and import dependence in Southeast Asia

Abstract In recent years, Southeast Asia has experienced rapid growth in energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. At the same time, the countries in the region have increasingly become net importers of fossil energy carriers. Against this backdrop, we use a novel decomposition approach to illustrate the historical linkages between energy trade and emissions in ten countries in Southeast Asia. Projecting future developments with and without additional efforts to reduce emissions, we show that an energy transition in line with climate targets laid down in the nationally determined contributions of these countries would greatly reduce their dependence on energy imports. We estimate that decarbonization could potentially reduce aggregate spending on fossil fuel imports by a total of more than USD 140 bn by 2030. Such savings could cover more than 70% of the investments in renewable energy sources required to meet these countries’ climate targets under the Paris Agreement.