Investing in carbon transportation under volume uncertainty and scaling flexibility

The transition to climate neutrality requires significant expansion of carbon capture and storage (CCS) infrastructure. However, uncertainty in CO 2 volumes and prices creates challenges for transport and storage (T&S) operators in determining optimal investment strategies. This study develops a real options analysis (ROA) framework to evaluate investment decisions in large-scale, open-access T&S infrastructure, comparing flexible ship-based transport with cost-effective trunklines. Our results show that, while net present value analysis favors trunklines, ROA demonstrates that ship-based solutions provide greater value due to scalability and shorter lead times. Investment thresholds remain high (400–600 € /tCO 2 ), underscoring the need for targeted policy measures to reduce uncertainty and accelerate CCS deployment. • Ship-based transport preferred over trunkline when flexibility is valued. • ROA outperforms NPV in evaluating CCS transport and storage. • CO 2 price volatility delays investment and raises risk of no investment. • Shorter investment lifetimes boost CO 2 transport and storage uptake. • Dual-echelon supply chains add uncertainty due to volume variability.