Global Burden of Hematologic Malignancies From 1990 to 2021 With Projections to 2030: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

ABSTRACT This study aimed to comprehensively analyze the epidemiological trends and global burden of hematologic malignancies (HM) from 1990 to 2021 and to project trends up to the year 2030. Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021, we analyzed the age‐standardized rates (ASRs) and the trends of HM from 1990 to 2021. Decomposition analysis was used to assess the contributions of population‐level determinants. Nordpred age‐period‐cohort (APC) models were developed to forecast the burden of HM. Globally, the prevalence of HM increased significantly from 1990 to 2021, from 2343.58 thousand to 5391.05 thousand cases. The ASIR for leukemia, multiple myeloma (MM), Hodgkin lymphoma, and non‐Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) were 5.6, 1.7, 0.8, and 7.1 per 100,000 population in 2021, respectively. From 1990 to 2021, the ASPR of leukemia increased despite decreases in ASIR, ASMR, and ASDR. Both MM and NHL displayed rising ASIR and ASPR, with MM also showing an increase in ASMR. HL exhibited declines across all metrics. Peak incidences of leukemia, MM, HL, and NHL in 2021 were most common in the age groups 0–4, 25–34, 65–74, and 70–74 years, respectively. Decomposition analysis highlighted that population growth contributed the most to the increase in ASDR for NHL. By 2030, ASDR for leukemia, HL, and NHL are projected to decrease, whereas ASDR for MM is expected to rise, particularly among males. The global burden of HM has undergone significant changes, with diverse trends in the incidence and mortality rates across different types.