Banking on victory? Gender, campaign spending, and candidate nomination outcomes in Canada

While candidate spending is a well-established predictor of electoral success in general elections, much less is known about the role of spending in intraparty elections. Drawing on a unique dataset of over 600 nomination contestants in Canada’s 2019 and 2021 federal elections, this study explores whether dynamics from the interparty arena also apply to the intraparty arena. We find that nomination contestant spending is positively associated with winning a party’s nomination. Contrary to expectations, however, we find no significant gender gap in total fundraising or spending: men and women raise and spend similar amounts. Nonetheless, we uncover consistent evidence of a gender gap in nomination fundraising effort, revealing that women candidates need twice as many donors to achieve the same fundraising results as men. Multivariate analyses confirm these patterns and further reinforce the notion that financial resources are a key determinant of political success not just in general elections but also in the earlier, intraparty, stages of candidate selection.