Global Validation of the Data‐Assimilative VERB‐3D Code for the Radiation Belts

Abstract Electrons within Earth's radiation belts exhibit large variability in space and time during geomagnetic storms, which could potentially damage satellites and harm astronauts in space. Physics‐based models describe the evolution of energetic electrons in the radiation belts, but they may suffer from uncertainties and errors, particularly in the initial and boundary conditions. Data assimilation can overcome these limitations by combining models with satellite observations, incorporating all available information to create a more reliable reconstruction. This study validates the data‐assimilative three‐dimensional Versatile Electron Radiation Belt code (VERB‐3D) model using data from three independent satellite missions: Arase and GOES for assimilation, and Van Allen Probes for validation. The data sets were cleaned and normalized to ensure their compatibility. The validation shows that the model effectively reproduces the radiation belt dynamics, where the reanalysis remains within a factor of 2 for 88.3% of the time, 98.4% within a factor of 5, and 99.4% within one order of magnitude for 1 MeV electrons. The results highlight the potential of data assimilation for space weather forecasting and as an input for specification models.

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Publication Details

Journal
Space Weather
Published
2025-11-28
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1029/2025sw004615
Primary Topic
Ionosphere and magnetosphere dynamics
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
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article

Global Validation of the Data‐Assimilative VERB‐3D Code for the Radiation Belts

Angelica Maria Castillo Tibocha, Takefumi Mitani, Iku Shinohara, Mátyás Szabó‐Roberts et al.
Space Weather
Ionosphere and magnetosphere dynamics
article

Global Validation of the Data‐Assimilative VERB‐3D Code for the Radiation Belts

Angelica Maria Castillo Tibocha, Takefumi Mitani, Iku Shinohara, Mátyás Szabó‐Roberts, Alexander Drozdov, Dedong Wang, Nana Higashio, Yuri Shprits, Bernhard Haas, Marina Garcı́a Peñaranda, Sebastián Cervantes, Yoshizumi Miyoshi, Takeshi Takashima
article en

Abstract

Abstract Electrons within Earth's radiation belts exhibit large variability in space and time during geomagnetic storms, which could potentially damage satellites and harm astronauts in space. Physics‐based models describe the evolution of energetic electrons in the radiation belts, but they may suffer from uncertainties and errors, particularly in the initial and boundary conditions. Data assimilation can overcome these limitations by combining models with satellite observations, incorporating all available information to create a more reliable reconstruction. This study validates the data‐assimilative three‐dimensional Versatile Electron Radiation Belt code (VERB‐3D) model using data from three independent satellite missions: Arase and GOES for assimilation, and Van Allen Probes for validation. The data sets were cleaned and normalized to ensure their compatibility. The validation shows that the model effectively reproduces the radiation belt dynamics, where the reanalysis remains within a factor of 2 for 88.3% of the time, 98.4% within a factor of 5, and 99.4% within one order of magnitude for 1 MeV electrons. The results highlight the potential of data assimilation for space weather forecasting and as an input for specification models.

Space WeatherVol. 23(12)
Planetary Science Institute (US), Dublin Institute For Advanced Studies (IE), University of California, Los Angeles (US), University of Potsdam (DE), Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JP), Institute of Space and Astronautical Science (JP), GFZ Helmholtz Centre for Geosciences (DE), Nagoya University (JP), Lappeenranta-Lahti University of Technology (FI)
Openalex Percentile: Top 74%
Ionosphere and magnetosphere dynamics
DOIOpen Access PDFOpenAlex
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