Spatial-temporal evolution and convergence of industrial carbon productivity in China

Industrial carbon productivity (ICP) is an indicator for economic development with reduced carbon emissions and building low-carbon cities. This paper assesses ICP in 284 cities of 8 economic regions in China from 2003 to 2021. The Dagum Gini coefficient decomposition (DGC) is applied to identify the variation in ICP among studied regions. The kernel density estimation (KDE) model and spatial Markov chain (SMC) are employed to explore the spatial-temporal evolution trend of ICP. The spatial convergence of ICP is analyzed based on the spatial panel convergence (SPC) model. The results indicate that ICP in studied cities in China has increased during 2003–2021, while the ICP gap among studied regions has narrowed. The primary factor contributing to the ICP gap before 2012 was inter-regional variation, and after 2012 was the intensity of transvariation. If a city is adjacent to one with a high ICP, its ICP is more likely to increase. Convergence exists both overall and within the 8 economic regions. Policy implications for improving ICP and reducing ICP disparities in Chinese cities are discussed.