Barriers to raising taxes on tobacco products in Uganda: a political economy analysis

Raising taxes on tobacco is considered the most effective measure for reducing tobacco consumption. Although Uganda ratified WHO's Framework Convention on Tobacco control which recommends levying taxes on tobacco products by up to 75% of their retail price, in Uganda taxes on tobacco stagnated at 35% between 2017 and 2024. There is little in-depth research interrogating the political economy underpinning tobacco tax policy in Uganda. The aim of this study is to apply political economy analysis in exploring barriers to implementing WHO's recommended tobacco tax rates in Uganda. Our qualitative study entailed key informant and in-depth interviews with 34 purposively selected participants. Data were analysed by thematic approach. Tobacco industry narratives are dominant among policy elite with a strongly entrenched notion that raising taxes will bring economic harm such as 'killing off' the tobacco industry and by implication diminish government tax revenue. Participants identified tobacco industry interference in tobacco tax policy in Uganda through both 'soft' tactics such as sustained lobbying of policy elite in the executive and legislative arms of government and 'hard' tactics through litigation. Contrary to recommendations of having a 'single spine' or uniform tax on tobacco, Uganda continues to implement a differential tax structure for tobacco products. The paucity of non-industry-funded-research on effects of raising tobacco taxes was observed while the attrition of civil society champions in advocacy campaigns for raising taxes ensured that there was no sustained counterbalance to the tobacco industry in Uganda which the later exploited to promote the narrative that taxes needed to be maintained at a low level where they would not cause 'economic harm'. Our findings highlight the need for strengthening civil society advocacy in order to sustain the momentum on raising tobacco taxes in Uganda.