How land use and GDP interact to shape ecosystem services trade-offs

Abstract Context Land use and land cover (LULC) change, intertwined with economic development, exerts profound impacts on the spatial distribution and functionality of ecosystem services (ES). Understanding these coupled dynamics is vital for landscape sustainability, yet their joint influence and landscape-scale heterogeneity remain insufficiently quantified. Objectives This study aimed to (1) develop and apply a transferable analytical framework integrating LULC, ES, and economic gradients; and (2) assess how changes in LULC and economic development influence the spatial patterns, trade-offs, and synergies among multiple ES within a heterogeneous regional landscape. Methods We assessed six key ES—carbon sequestration, crop production, flood mitigation, habitat quality, soil retention, and water yield—in Hunan Province, China, from 1995 to 2020. Spatial indicators and nonlinear scaling diagnostics were employed to analyze ES dynamics under varying LULC and GDP gradients. Results Forested mountainous regions supported high levels of regulating services, while intensively farmed lowlands were dominated by crop production but had reduced multifunctionality and frequent trade-offs. Analysis revealed nonlinear relationships between LULC composition and ES supply: increases in forest cover produced disproportionately high ES gains, while urban expansion led to substantial ecological losses. The magnitude of these effects varied with economic development, with wealthier regions experiencing both greater gains from restoration and higher losses from urban growth. Conclusions The proposed framework enables robust, context-sensitive assessment of ES responses to land use and economic changes. By explicitly considering spatial heterogeneity and economic context, this approach informs adaptive and equitable strategies for sustainable landscape management.