Total Solar Irradiance Variations from Data on the $${}^{\mathbf{10}}$$Be Concentration in Antarctic Ice

Recently, a series of long-term reconstructions of the total solar irradiance (TSI) has been obtained. They indicate that the amplitude of its secular variations does not exceed 1 W/m $${}^{2}$$ . Such a small amplitude suggests a very weak influence of TSI on the Earth’s climate change both in the past and in the future. In this paper it is shown that the data on the concentration of cosmogenic beryllium in Central Antarctica ices fit poorly into the small-amplitude scenario. The $${}^{10}$$ Be concentration variations in Antarctic ice indicate that the increase in TSI can reach 1.4–2.7 W/m $${}^{2}$$ after the end of the Maunder minimum (the end of the 17th century) and up to 3.4 W/m $${}^{2}$$ after the Spörer minimum (the first half of the 15th century). The causes of the remaining uncertainties and the direction of further studies are discussed.